|Will there be a Violent Resurgence of the LTTE soon?|
LTTE activists and fund raisers are going around collecting money in different Western countries.They have a common story with variations in recital depending upon the target audience and narrator. The story in essence is something like this –
“LTTE leader Prabhakaran and Intelligence chief Pottu Amman are safe in a secret location with 2000 experienced Tiger cadres. They broke through the military and naval cordon and reached safety a few days before the Mullivaakkal debacle.They are keeping a low profile for obvious reasons.But plans are afoot to launch a concerted attack on the North and East of Sri Lanka and capture strategic territory after annihilating or driving the armed forces away”.
“Meanwhile 10,000 cadres are being trained at other secret locations in different batches. The idea is to launch an all out assault under the overall command of Prabakharan and Pottu Amman. The combined force of 12,000 LTTE cadres will wrest back the territory of Tamil Eelam and reverse the prevailing military situation”
“ As part of this military strategy we are also planning to conduct a series of coordinated landmine and bomb attacks in various parts of the seven Sinhala majority provinces. For this we are enlisting several Sinhala ex – service personnel through hefty bribes and payments. They will get into action at the right time in concert with our main attack”.
“For all these plans to bear fruit we need money. We can’t ask each and every person. Neither can we issue a public appeal. We can only depend on a few trusted and committed persons like you. So please give what you can”
This then is the basic story being told by Tiger fund raisers to collect money.
When I first heard this story I burst into laughter. I realised however that the narrator of this story seriously believed it and was trying to convince me of its bona fides. So I put on a straight face. Subsequently I heard the same story being repeated by different sources from different countries.
Later I exchanged notes with a Western journalist who specialises in “terrorism” and has wide contacts with several national security and intelligence officials. This journalist told me that many security officials too had been dismissive of the story when they first heard it but were baffled by the intensity of those believing it to be true. They are also perturbed by the fact that some people at least are providing funds for this “mission impossible”.
This Columnist firmly believes that Prabhakaran and Pottu Amman are no more and that the bulk of the LTTE has been destroyed. Those who surrendered are being detained and released in stages after being rehabilitated. There may be some LTTE operatives and members of the supportive network who have evaded capture so far in Sri Lanka. But these people too are being systematically apprehended.
Given current global realities there is no country in the world that would tolerate the LTTE training 12,000 cadres for a military assault against Sri Lanka. Besides a launching pad for such an operation can only be in the South Asian or South East Asian region. This is impossible given India’s position.
The prospect of paying ex- service personnel to place landmines and trigger bomb explosions in a coordinated manner is also a soaring flight of fancy. Intelligence chief Pottu Amman had reportedly paid off many people in the defence services to engage in sabotage earlier . Such attempts were thorough failures. The level of genuine patriotism among members or ex-members of the armed forces would negate such attempts. Even an ex –soldier angered over the treatment meted out to Sarath Fonseka will not take LTTE cash and explode a bomb
More importantly the security situation in the country is firmly under control. No large scale sabotage is possible. Equally impossible is a naval invasion envisaged by these LTTE remnants. Even if a small assault force was able to land and penetrate it would not survive for long. That is the prevailing military reality
Against such a backdrop the attempts by LTTE activists abroad to garner funds for a military assault on Sri Lanka can only be termed as part of a gigantic hoax to hoodwink Diasporic gullibles out of some money. Given the level of blind hatred and irrational anger among sections of the Diaspora, a certain quantum of funds could be procured for the envisaged project. It cannot take off or materialise
To the question posed “will there be a violent resurgence of the LTTE soon”? the emphatic answer can only be a resounding NO!
Although the grand project of an all out military assault is an impossibility the Tiger and pro –Tiger Diaspora is certainly capable of continuing to be a source of trouble and irritation.
It would be interesting and informative therefore to scrutinise the Tiger and pro-Tiger sections of the Tamil Diaspora more closely in a forthcoming article.
~ www.dailymirror.lk ~ By DBS Jeyaraj firstname.lastname@example.org